Delivering Evidence of Performance and Effect for the Water Environment
Marian Scott1, Campbell Gemmell2
1Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom; 2Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Stirling, United Kingdom

The IPCC in its 2008 technical paper on Climate Change and Water wrote “observational records and climate projections provide abundant evidence that freshwater resources are vulnerable and have the potential to be strongly impacted by climate change with wide ranging consequences on human societies and ecosystems”. A simple summary would be that both quantity and quality of water are of global, regional and local importance.

The first step in improving our understanding of potential impacts and consequences to water quality and quantity under climate change is to consider the current state of the water environment (a snapshot in time) and the historical evidence of past state and its trajectory (over space and time), in the light of the regulatory framework and any environmental measures.

This paper will present examples from Scotland based around three key pieces of legislation- the Water Framework Directive (2000, Scotland, 2003), the revised Bathing Waters Directive (2006) and Scottish regulations, 2008 and the Floods Directive (2007) and Scottish regulations (2009).

Keywords: Environmental regulation; Statistical modelling; Water quality and quantity

Biography: Marian Scott is professor of Environmental Statistics at the University of Glasgow. She has been working in the area of Environmental Statistics, specifically the evidence base for policy making for more than 20 years. Areas of expertise include the water envrionment, air quality and health and the development of indicators