Probabilistic Aspects of Exploration Risk
Nozer D. Singpurwalla
Statistics, The George Washington University, Washington, DC, United States

In this talk I will describe some probability models that can be used to assess uncertainties that arise in the context of extracting resources from the earth's crust. Focus will be on size of oil frields. I will discuss models that are based on subjective and objective information and use the Bayesian paradigm to combine expert testimonies with background information and empirical data to generate predictive distributions.

Keywords: Expert testimonies; Log hyperbolic distribution; Probabilistic models

Biography: Professor of Statistics and of Decision Sciences.