Adversarial risk analysis attempts to combine game theoretic perspectives with Bayesian risk analysis. This presentation applies that approach in two classical applications: La Relance (the “Borel Game”) and Blotto games (convoy routing in hostile territory). We introduce a “Borel Game” that enables the analyst to create a model for the decision-making of the opponent, while accounting for the fact that the opponent is modeling the the decision-maker. The results are interestingly and usefully different from the traditional solutions obtained through the minimax solution concept.

Keywords: Game theory; Risk; Blotto games; La Relance

Biography: Davd Banks is a professor of statistics at Duke University. He is past-editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association, and is a fellow of the ASA. He works on risk analysis, data mining, and metabolomics.