Over the last decade a substantial population rise along with the corresponding energy demand have increased the concentration of green-house gases in the atmosphere, and the above two phenomena have left their major adverse consequences having been translated in terms of an increase in the concentration of the direct (CO2) and indirect (NO, SO2, CO) greenhouse gases, which ultimately manifested themselves under the menacing global warming phenomenon. The melting of land ice coupled with the thermal expansion are expected to cause the global sea-level rise, and rigorous analytical studies/researches have confirmed that the average rise in sea level globally is @2mm per year in conjunction with an increase in the global surface temperature of 0.74±0.18 °C (1.33±0.32 °F), as per the 2007 fourth assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
This paper presents expository review and research findings revealing new analytical results in regard to the varied aspects of the global warming phenomenon, specially, on understanding their impacts (and inter-relations) through the presently developed most precise non-linear multivariable regression models, other sub- models (risk models, and cross-sectional models, taking into account the component parameters (temperature, ambient temperature, mortality, green- house gases, like direct (CO2) and indirect, (NO, SO2, CO), melting of ice, global sea-level rise), albeit having compared and adjudged such results against the backdrop of the presently available results, in a broader aspect to quantify and predict changes in the global average temperature with maximum precision in the coming thirty years.
A study on the absolute mean global temperature over the last 130 years has revealed the following interesting features. Indeed, the period of 130 years can be divided into three main time-periods – 1880-1936, 1937-1980 and 1981-2009 based on the distinct temperature variation patterns. During the time-period 1880-1936 (57 years), the mean absolute global temperature was around 13.77 degree centigrade which marginally increased to 14 degree centigrade during the time-period 1937-1980, though during the said periods the standard deviations of annual mean global temperatures were almost the same. However, the change was remarkable during the period 1981-2009 (last 29 years) - the mean absolute temperature went up to 14.41 degree centigrade and the variation seen during this period was also found to be very much. The following table presents the outcome of the study –
|Time Period||Mean Absolute Temperature||Standard Deviation|
Linear models as well as non-linear mixed models have been called upon to model the future behaviour of the temperature variation over the three distinct time zones - best fitted models (with maximum precision) have been employed to obtain estimates for the future years with interpretations and menace.
Keywords: Global warming; Green-house gases; Modeling; Time-zones
Biography: Prof. (Dr.) Satyabrata Pal is a former Professor of Agricultural Statistics and Dean, Post-Graduate Studies (Head of Post-Graduate Academics and Research in the University) of a State University in India. He has written extensively in reputed international and national journals, number of publications exceeding 110 including journals of Statistics and other disciplines of Science. He has made most significant theoretical research contributions in Design of Experiments and Sample Survey. His contribution in applications of Statistics in other disciplines of Science is outstanding. He is an Elected member of International Statistical Institute (ISI) and Fellow of West Bengal Academy of Science and Technology. He is also Fellow of Indian Association of Hydrologists, and Inland Fisheries Society of India. During his post-retirement days, Prof. Pal is now the Principal of a Post-Graduate Mananagent Institute in India.